How Housing Inventory Affects Local Home Prices

Market figures and commentary reflect the July 3, 2026 episode, not current market conditions.

Why is your neighbor's house price going UP while a house in Texas is going DOWN? One word: INVENTORY.

On this week's Real Talk Real Estate Podcast, Jay Day and Andy Webb break down the single biggest factor driving the wild differences in home prices across the country right now — and why "the market" isn't one market at all.

Here's the simple version: More homes for sale = more buyer options = less competition = prices flatten or dip Fewer homes for sale = buyers competing hard = prices keep climbing

States like Texas, Florida, and Colorado have inventory back above 2019 levels — and prices there are flat or slightly down. But most of the country, including much of the Northeast and our own MD/PA/WV/VA region, is still running below pre-pandemic inventory. That's exactly why local prices are still trending up here, even while national headlines scream "cooling market."

Bottom line: national averages don't tell YOUR story. Local inventory does. New episode is up now — tap in for the full breakdown.

Questions about what your local market is actually doing? Call 866-702-9038

Historical listing featured July 3, 2026; price, availability and events reflect that date.

HOUSE OF THE WEEK 5934 Etterbeek St, Ijamsville, MD 21754 $435,000

An end-unit upper-level condo townhome that checks every box 3 Bedrooms 2.5 Bathrooms 2,663 sq ft of living space 1-Car Garage

Highlights: Kitchen with a massive center island — the whole crew fits here Primary suite with tray ceiling + huge walk-in closet Oversized walk-in shower in the primary bath Abundant natural light throughout Large covered deck for morning coffee or evening wind-down

Tucked into sought-after Ijamsville and close to major commuter routes, top-rated schools, shopping, dining, parks, playgrounds, and community common areas — this one's space, comfort, and convenience all in one package.

Call 866-702-9038 to schedule your private tour Real talk. Real results.

#JayDayAndTheDayHomeTeam #DayHomeTeam #LPTRealty #RealTalkRealEstatePodcast #HouseOfTheWeek #IjamsvilleMD #FrederickCountyMD #MarylandRealEstate

Episode Transcript

Andy: I'm Andy Webb.

Jay: And I'm Jay Day.

Andy: And we are talking real estate with the Real Talk Real Estate Podcast. Jay, we talk about homes. We talk about buying homes. We talk about selling homes. One thing that they have in common is that there is a home that is up for sale and it has a price attached to it. What is the number one driver? What is that main thing impacting home prices right now?

Jay: Well, that's a great question. And I mean, there's a lot of things, you know, there's so many variables that are out there, but it always does boil down to one thing that impacts home prices. And you know, the news lately has been, you know, home prices, and again, this is the national news, home prices are cooling off. And that's really not completely true when you look at the individual markets. And again, we talk about this even where we are, with the area we cover, when you get into Frederick County to Carroll County to Berkeley County. It's all market specific. However, what it all boils down to is inventory.

Andy: Supply and demand.

Jay: I mean, supply and demand. So, the most simple version, the most simple way to explain it is when there's more homes for sale, buyers have more options. More options is less competition. Less competition means the sellers can't push the prices as high.

Andy: So, looking at the price is only half the picture. You need to know what made that price.

Jay: Yeah, and I mean, so if we go back and we think about and talk about what's happened, you know, during COVID, there was a very limited amount of homes that were on the market. During that time, what happened? Prices skyrocketed because there were people that needed to buy, wanted to buy, and, you know, let's say for every buyer that was out there, there was only, you know, there was one home for every 10 buyers. So, there's going to be competition because that's, you know, there's only one house and there's 10 people that want it. So, what happens? Think about the auction world. Same thing.

Andy: Exactly. Who's willing to pay more for that item? Who's willing to give up more?

Jay: Right, and then once you have that sale, you now have a benchmark of here's where the value is. So let's say that your neighbor sold their home, and they listed it for $400,000. It escalated. It sold for $425,000. When you go to sell your home, you're not going to say, well, you know, they put it on the market for $400,000, so I'm going to put it on for $400,000. It sold for $425,000. So what are you thinking? I'm getting at least $425,000.

Andy: Right. That's your thought process.

Jay: Right, and if there's nothing else really out there, guess what? You can go on the market at 425 and you're probably going to get even more than 425. So then what happens with the next neighbor?

Andy: It goes up a little bit.

Jay: And again, now let's say the opposite happens. You go to put your home on the market, and we've seen this happen in specific neighborhoods. And I'll talk specifically about, you know, over in Lake Linganore, there's a ton of different villages. There's Linganore Town Center, which is right there at the high school. And at one point, we had a town home. There was one other one on the market, we put another one up. At that point, we ended up selling it very quickly, we sold it for more money. The next person that called us that wanted to sell over there, there were 16 townhomes on the market at the same time. So what do you think happens? That home that we sold when there were only two available, and now there's 16 available, do we think we can push the envelope? No. Instead, what we have to do is we have to look at everything else that's available, because what we just talked about, there's more competition, there are more options, right? So when you get into the more options, one, buyers don't have to make a decision super fast. They're gonna look at everything, they're gonna compare everything. And then you get into the opposite. So let's say that you owned a home where you were before you came up here, okay? And you got the job offer, you're coming up, and you need to sell. You don't have an option at this point.

Andy: Right. It must be done.

Jay: And let's say that that's the time where in your neighborhood, you had 14 homes and they were all similar to yours. When you go on the market, you're going to end up being a little more aggressive on the lower price because you have to sell.

Andy: Right.

Jay: So what does that do? It does the opposite effect. It starts bringing down the values and bringing down the prices.

Andy: So you're affecting the other 14 homes.

Jay: Yes. And what did it all boil down to?

Andy: Inventory. Supply and demand.

Jay: How many homes were available. And I mean, we have situations where people get relocated for work, divorce situations. Sometimes people pass away and there's still a mortgage on the house. So if there's a mortgage on the house and it's been left to the family and they don't have the money to pay that mortgage, what are they gonna do? They're gonna price it super low to get rid of it. And that is going to impact the value of your house.

Andy: There's so many factors. I mean, just hearing you talk about this, it's like seeing somebody, you know, with a puppet in front of a curtain, but then there's so much going on behind the curtain.

Jay: Oh yeah, and it's funny though, because when you think about it, it seems overly complex. You're like, well, why are prices doing this right now? Why is this doing this right now? And when you take it down to the most basic level, and that's sort of what I wanted to do with that demonstration of, you're on the market, there's a bunch of others in your neighborhood, and you have to move. You are going to make a price adjustment on the lower side. And same thing, when you get into that, the inventory is going to also impact your condition. So if they're comparing you to 16 other houses, if you have shag carpet, you're not gonna look as good.

Andy: I don't know. It depends on what the people like.

Jay: Right.

Andy: Because I love shag carpet, but that is a factor in the overall picture.

Jay: Oh yeah. If all the homes had updated kitchens and yours didn't, that does affect it, and it's going to be an impact on your value. It's going to be an impact on what your house sells for. So, you know, the bottom line is, and the other point of this was really that, you know, national headlines, and we say this all the time, are great in generalities, but it is also more specific. So, not just the county you're in, not just the city you're in, but sometimes it even boils down to the neighborhood you're in.

Andy: Sure.

Jay: Because how many times have you looked online and you're like, wow, this neighborhood, there's all these homes in this one pocket, like what's going on? Why is everybody over here selling? And it may not have anything to do with the area not being desirable. It could be that life situations have happened in that certain area and everyone tends to go on the market at the same time. So, you know, bottom line is the more available homes there are, the lower the prices you're probably going to get for your house.

Andy: And what I'm hearing from you, obviously, is there are so many facets that it's hard for an outsider. And by an outsider, I mean a person trying to sell their home. They don't know what they don't know. And so you need somebody who does, and that's where you come in because this is what you do. You know these factors and facets. You can look between each house. You're the one reading the tea leaves and you can help guide that pricing.

Jay: Oh, absolutely. And if you happen to be one of those homes in an area where there's a lot of competition, the most important thing when you're hiring an agent, when you're selling, well, one is obviously you need to price it right. But the goal on the marketing of your specific home is the features of your home that make it a little bit different than the others. That's what needs to be highlighted in the initial part of the marketing. For example, if you have a fourth story, if you have a rooftop terrace, if you have a detached garage, if you're an end unit instead of an interior unit, and you're talking about town homes, people have very short memories, they have very little attention span, so you need to hit them, and I don't mean it in this, I'm going to say it a direct way, you need to hit the buyers in the face with your differentiating factors immediately. You don't make that picture number 10, picture number 15. You don't bury it in your writing. If you've got, like, a thousand words of written remarks and it's somewhere in the middle, guess what? People have already phased out. They're like, oh, this is one of the same.

Andy: They call it burying the lede. You don't want to bury the lede. You got to lead with your strength.

Jay: Absolutely. So, you know, if you're listening to this and you're a little nervous that your value may be impacted because there's a whole lot going on around you, there's a lot of homes out there, your agent should really, again, focus on your strengths of your home. What differentiates you from the others? And you lead with that.

Andy: Yeah, absolutely.

Jay: And remember, people have short memories, people have low attention spans, people, you lose them very quickly. So you've got that quick, you've got to hit them quick with something that makes yours different. So think about it, when you're looking online, and I know, you know, we're in the process.

Andy: We are.

Jay: And you look, and let's say you happen to be looking at townhomes. And what's the first thing that most people do when they're listing? They have the front of the house.

Andy: Sure. They all look the same.

Jay: All look the same. And then most people will then go into walking you through the house in the order that the house goes in. So here's the front, here's the foyer, here's the living room, here's the kitchen, here's the dining room. And guess what? You know, that fenced backyard might be picture number 35.

Andy: Right. But that may be the one thing, because we have pets.

Jay: You got it.

Andy: That we need. I've got to have a fenced-in backyard.

Jay: Yeah, and if you make it too far in the process, buried, people are going to just say, oh, this is the same as everything else.

Andy: Right.

Jay: So there was my little bit of free information for anybody out there that's already listed. Again, lead with your strength. So speaking of that, are you ready for the House of the Week?

Andy: Lead with the strengths of this one.

Jay: We will. 5934 Etterbeek Street in Ijamsville. So, end unit.

Andy: Okay that's a strength.

Jay: End unit. What does end unit mean? You have one less neighbor and you have lots more natural light if you're a townhome because you have windows on the sides that the others cannot have, right? 2,663 finished square feet of living space. So we've got that, all right? Next thing, you've got a detached rear-load garage. So street parking, don't have to worry about it. Next thing, we've got a kitchen with a massive center island. Entertaining, you're a little more casual when you're eating, you don't want to have a formal dining room, you pull up your bar stools, you're good to go. Primary suite, tray ceiling, massive walk-in closet, and then also an oversized walk-in shower.

Andy: Oh, perfect.

Jay: Yeah, it makes it a little bit different. One of the other neat things, off the main level of your house, a covered deck so you have a little bit of outdoor space. Decent amount of space with that. We talked about the abundant light throughout. And best of all, but this is the same as every other one in that neighborhood, of course it's conveniently located to major commuter routes. Top rated school, shopping, dining, parks, playgrounds, all the other ones have that. However, not all of them have all the natural light. Not all of them have the attached garages, because a lot of these homes have driveways or street parking. So go to wfre.com, check this home out. It's listed for $435,000. Just hit the market. We have an open house this Sunday from 2 to 4 o'clock, so you can pop on by to take a look. And it's a great house, great location. We talked about the features. Again, go to WFRE.com, look up our podcast, you'll see the House of the Week. If you like what you see, pop in on Sunday. Otherwise, click the button, schedule a private tour, and you can turn it into your home.

Andy: Excellent. Sunday, July 5th, you could change your life with this home.

Jay: Absolutely.

Andy: You just got to go see it. I'm Andy Webb.

Jay: I'm Jay Day.

Andy: And this has been Real Talk Real Estate.