podcast-9/15/12

🏡📊 Ready to decode the real estate market? In our latest podcast, we're unraveling the mysteries of seller's, buyer's, and neutral markets! 🏠📈

Discover the key differences and what they mean for your real estate journey. Plus, get the latest insights on revised home price forecasts from the experts. Spoiler alert: There have been some significant updates!

And don't forget to check out our "House of the Week" in charming Brunswick! 🌟 This delightful property boasts original hardwood floors on the main level, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms, a balcony off the primary suite, a spacious deck, patio, fenced yard, off-street parking, an above-ground pool, and a less than three-year-old roof. But that's not all—the property also features RV parking with a 30 amp hook-up.


Tune in now for all this and more! 🎙️🏡 #realestate #podcast #marketinsights #homepriceforecast #realestateexplained #houseoftheweek #BrunswickMD #propertyhighlights

Tom Whalen:

I'm Tom.

Jay Day:

I'm Jay Day.

Tom Whalen:

Jay Day and the Day Home Team of Real Estate Teams with our weekly real estate podcast. What's going on this week, buddy?

Jay Day:

Well, our last podcast, we were talking about some of our areas here locally starting to creep up and get close to a one month supply of inventory. I just want to put that in perspective for those that don't understand. So what we consider a seller's market is one to three months supply of inventory. Then once we get over three months, three, four months, we're looking at a level inventory, a level market where it's not an advantage on one side over the other. And then once we get over that, then we're in a buyer's market. So even talking about the market changing a little bit and us getting to over a month's supply in just a couple of the areas that we cover, that's nothing to be alarmed about. The interest rates the way they've been, it has definitely made it a little tougher for people to qualify. And then the biggest thing I'm seeing is people just don't have the extra money. So when they're going to buy, their expectation of the house is much higher because they're not going to have the money to replace flooring change out the kitchen. So people are expecting the homes to be a little nicer now and a little more together. And we're seeing a fair amount of transactions end up canceling because of inspections because they find out, oh, if I have to replace the HVAC and the roof, the roof might be 30 grand. The HVAC say that there's just one unit in there that's between 10 and $12,000.

Tom Whalen:

So then a buyer says, I don't want this house because of that.

Jay Day:

Yeah.

Tom Whalen:

Well then won't somebody else come up and say, look, I'll take this place?

Jay Day:

Yeah, it does happen. But that's why the days started creeping from five days to 14 days. And like I said, things are still moving. It's just a matter of setting the right expectation. Again, for the longest during Covid, people weren't even doing inspections. It's even more crucial right now that you have an agent that helps you understand and navigate through all of that, because you do occasionally get offers that do not have inspections, and sometimes the ones without inspections don't have as good of a sales price compared to ones that have inspections. But with the inspections, there's a whole bunch of things that can happen. Even a house that's in good shape, I mean, the buyer has the right, they can cancel during the inspection period regardless. So it's not like the seller is guaranteed that they're going to move forward on that. And we've also had more and more people reaching out and trying to figure out what the utility costs are, because again, their mortgage payment is now going to be higher, and we know that energy costs hasn't went down. All these things come into play when trying to make these decisions. So one of the interesting things that I wanted to talk about was we've been talking about predictions and what people were saying. We've had a lot of buyers that were waiting, well, the prices are going to come down? Are rates going to come back down? And none of that is happening. And I go on all the time about my predictions versus the other predictions. But it was really interesting to see that there were a bunch of headlines talking about home prices were going to drop, and now we've got some data here. And I wanted to share this because a lot of these places that did forecasting for home prices and home values, they have all changed their tune.

Tom Whalen:

They all changed their tune.

Jay Day:

And of course, it's easy to change the tune now because they're seeing it.

Tom Whalen:

We're seeing it. Yeah. Second guessing. Hindsight's 2020.

Jay Day:

Yeah, so the Mortgage Banker Association was saying that there was going to be a negative 0.6% drop in value. Now, their current forecast is that it's going to just remain constant. There's going to be no drop in, no increase. Fannie Mae went, and this one's a pretty extreme one. They went from saying the home values drop by, they were going to go down 1.5%. Now they're forecasting home values increased by 3.9%.

Tom Whalen:

That's a big change there, Jay.

Jay Day:

That's a huge change. Morgan Stanley, they were saying it was going to go down by 4%. Now they're saying it's going to be flat, no improvement, but no drop in value. American Enterprise Institute said it was going to be down 15 to 20%. Now they're saying there's going to be an increase of 6%.

Tom Whalen:

I mean,

Jay Day:

Wells Fargo said it was going to be a drop in value of 5.5%. Now they're saying an increase in value of 2.2%. Goldman Sachs, they were saying it was going to be down between 5 to 10%. Now they're saying there's going to be an increase of 1.8, and then the Home Price Expectation Survey said it was going to be down 2.04%. Now they're predicting an increase of 3.32%. So what this means is, well, one, they were wrong, and there's no crystal ball. Bottom line. There's no crystal ball. These are people that have been in the business looking at things, doing forecasting forever. And as we've talked about, there's no like, hey, I'm going to look in the past and try and make predictions off of this.

Tom Whalen:

There's no history that they can refer to,

Jay Day:

No.

Tom Whalen:
As far as the real estate market goes,

Jay Day:

Yeah. The only thing that they're consistent on right now is that there's not going to be a drop in home values through the rest of this year.

Tom Whalen:

They all seem to agree on at least that.

Jay Day:

Yes. Now, some say no increase and some say increases. I don't see us hitting appreciation of close to 4%. I don't see that. I still think we're in the one, one and a half percent range. Maybe the more affordable homes may see that peak up a little higher just because of the low inventory. However, I'm still sticking to one, one and a half percent, and that's still a nice profit. You look back and you say, wow, well, it went up 12%, 15%, 1% is not a bad thing at all. And as long as these interest rates continue to do what they're doing, we're just in a situation where inventory is low, interest rates are up, everything's more expensive. Have you found anything to be cheaper than it was?

Tom Whalen:

No. And if somebody says it, it's once again, it's some kind of hustle.

Jay Day:

Yeah, yeah. There's nothing that has changed for the positive with things being more affordable,

Tom Whalen:

Especially the things that we really, really need. Like homes and clothing and food. Yes.

Jay Day:

Yeah, Gas.

Tom Whalen:

So things like this,

Jay Day:

Even the things you want, like transportation. I still joke about it because during covid, you could fly anywhere super cheap. The plane was half empty. It was wonderful. Traveling was absolutely wonderful. Now, we travel a fair amount. Every plane is fully booked, overbooked. There's people on the waiting list. It's horrendous. And you're paying a lot more money to get there.

Tom Whalen:

Yes, I understand. I understand. Understand.

Jay Day:

You're like, man, what in the world is going on?

Tom Whalen:

I understand. Yes.

Jay Day:

So the bottom line is, if you've been thinking about selling, you don't have to do a mad rush to sell because you're worried that the bottom's going to fall out. There's still going to be, hopefully, if everything goes as I'm thinking, it will, there'll still be an increase in values, just much slower. And if you were sitting on the sidelines thinking about buying rates have not come down. They're going up and values are going up. So every time, each month you wait, it's costing you more money. So you have to make a decision of, do I really want to own a home or am I comfortable renting? And if you're comfortable renting, there's nothing wrong with that. You may say, you know what? I'm just out of it. But to say, I'm waiting for things, values to drop, for this to drop, for that to drop. I don't see that happening this year. I don't even see that happening into 2024, even though we will see what happens. You get into the timeframe of elections and things do get wonky. But again, that was in the past. So who knows ifs.

Tom Whalen:

Who knows, man.

Jay Day:

It's all a guessing game. But we will talk to you and explain your options. We'll explain to you the pros and cons, what could happen, what may happen, and then you can make the most informed decision for yourself and for your family.

Tom Whalen:

You got a home of the week?

Jay Day:

I do, 410 9th Avenue in Brunswick. This home is a great home. Original hardwood floors on the main level, four bedrooms, two and a half bathrooms. There's a balcony off the master suite. There's a large deck. There's a patio, a fenced yard, off street parking and above ground pool. The roof is less than three years old. There's a barn on the property, and they actually have, it's pretty cool. They've got it set up where you can do RV parking that has a 30 amp hookup.

Tom Whalen:

That's nice, man.

Jay Day:

And all of that for 300,000.

Tom Whalen:

Put the in-laws in the RV. Sounds good.

Jay Day:

Yeah. So if you want to check out photos of that, go to wfre.com. Look up Tom and Jay's Real Estate podcast. And you know what I always say, if you like the photos, there's button on there. You can click the schedule showing, and one of our agents will give you a private tour. Thank you again for tuning in. We appreciate you listening. Any questions you may have, you could always reach out to us dayhometeam.com, or you can call us at 866-702-9038.

Tom Whalen:

I'm Tom.

Jay Day:

I'm Jay.

Tom Whalen:

Thanks for listening. Tell your friends all about it.

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