Podcast 12/15/23

🏡 Confused about the housing market? You're not alone! Join us on our latest podcast as we tackle the top 3 questions on everyone's minds:

1. What's happening with mortgage rates? 📉📈
2. Where are home prices headed? 🏠💰
3. Is a recession around the corner? 📉📈

Get expert insights and data-backed answers to these pressing questions. Don't miss out on the latest trends and news in the real estate market! 🎙️📊


And of course, check out our "House of the Week" 🏡 featuring an incredible opportunity in Falling Waters, WV. Own your vacation spot in the River Bend seasonal campground community with pools, courts, tot lots, and access to the Potomac River! Listed at just $30k. 🌅🛶 #HousingMarket #RealEstateTrends

Tom Whalen:

I'm Tom.

Jay Day:

I'm Jay.

Tom Whalen:

of Jay Day the Day Home Team of Real Estate Teams with our weekly real estate podcast. So Jay. This time of the year, we're coming up to the end of the year. The holidays. Phones are ringing. What are people asking? What's the question they have when they call the day home team?

Jay Day:

I'll tell you, there's a whole lot of questions going around. What's happening in the housing market. I bring it up on the podcast. There's a lot of confusion. People hear things with their friends. They hear things with their friends that are not realtors. They're friends that are realtors. They're actual agents. They read stuff on social media, they hear the news. The top three questions that we've been hearing from people have been, number one, what's going to happen with mortgage rates? That's the big thing because people were waiting, well, one, people were waiting for sales prices to drop when rates went up, and that didn't happen. So now people are like, okay, well what's going to happen with these rates this year. It's been very volatile. We've had lots of changes as we get into the end of the year. It has been nice that we've eased in and have upper sixes, so there's been a little bit of easing on that, and there's no crystal ball. We don't know what's going to truly happen. And if we go back a year ago, and I mean we could actually go and pull some of these podcasts where I talked about what experts were predicting, and I didn't think that they were going to be accurate and they were totally wrong. So when we tell people mortgage rates, they're going to be what they're going to be. There's no controlling them. There's nothing you can do that's going to make a difference. Ultimately, if homes continue to appreciate like they have, and let's say for example, you would've bought five months ago and the rate was 8%, the values are still there and the values have went up. So you could have always refinanced and gotten a lower rate in the sixes. So if rates do go down, there's nothing that's preventing you from being able to do a refinance a year from now, a year and a half from now. The only time that would be a problem would be if home values crashed, and there's no prediction of that either. So I would just say interest rates. There's an expectation that they may get a little lower, but if you listen to our podcast last week, I talked about how much the average and median sales prices are going up, so you're not gaining anything in that. You might as well lock into the house prices the way they are today, the interest rate the way it is today, and then if the rates drop, you can always do a refinance. To me, that's sort of the smarter play. Now, question two I sort of brought up already, what's going to go on with home prices? Are they going to go down? Are they going to go up? And I will say we have consistently seen that the home prices are going up and they have went up this year despite interest rate changes. And so I pulled some stats off of the home price expectation survey from Pulsenomics, and here's what their expectation is in 2024, they're thinking that home prices will appreciate 2.17%, 2025, they're going to increase 3.24%. 2026, 3.79. 2027, 4.18. And they estimated Q3 of 2023 that they would've increased by 3.32%. So if that holds true, realistically waiting is probably not the smartest move. You're going to end up having to pay more for your house.

Tom Whalen:

Well, as a lay person, those first two questions you talked about, the second one, I can honestly say that, yeah, home prices have appreciated. They have gone up as far as that first question. You don't have a crystal ball. You can get an educated guess and explanation from Jay as I get weekly, and I'm glad I have this guy for a friend, and I would call him if I had any questions about this.

Jay Day:

Yeah, and I'll tell you, I mean, I really thought that the interest rates were going to increase and I thought they were going to, but then I don't know how it slipped my mind probably because I don't pay attention to the news anymore because it's all doom and gloom. You and I used to listen to it, and then you always told me your goal is you listen to the, you get what you need for the show. But outside of that, the doom and gloom is not something,

Tom Whalen:

It's hard. It's hard to stay away from it.

Jay Day:

So I've sort of tuned that out and I forgot that we're going into an election year and realistically I'm not going to get political because no matter whether you have blue or red in power, they all make changes the year of the election to try to stay in power. So it would only make sense that if the people that are there now want to stay, they're going to get these rates down so that everyone looks like the economy, they're doing a good job, and people do have short memories. They tend to not remember longer periods of time.

Tom Whalen:

Oh, yeah. No, I'm with you, man. I know, especially when it comes to money.

Jay Day:

And like I said, blue or red politics is politics, and they all say things to try to stay in power or to get in power. So with that coming into play, I would not be surprised if we don't hit the low sixes, maybe even into the upper fives as we get closer to the election time. But we'll go back and listen to this when we have to mark this on the calendar to try and go back and see if the prediction was right as we're getting into Q3 of next year. So the third one, and I'm hearing this a little bit less, but it still does come up, is a recession around the corner. And if anything, I mean, I think we've sort of shown that we have been, we've in a very difficult financial time where things have not gotten cheaper, interest rates have gotten more expensive. Gas is more. I still get shocked at the grocery store.

Tom Whalen:

The grocery store gets me because that's something I deal with once or twice a week, and that gets me, yeah.

Jay Day:

Yeah, the grocery store run turned into what a Costco would be, and you would leave Costco, you go to checkout, your bill would be $180, and you're like, I don't get that much. Now, I feel that when I'm at the grocery store. Instead, I'm like, hold on, there's only I can carry these bags in one trip and it costs me this amount of money. This is ridiculous.

Tom Whalen:

Jay, the three questions that you're saying people are asking you, those are the three big ones we all want to know the answers to.

Jay Day:

Oh yeah. And I mean, the experts and the Wall Street Journal has done some polls recently and what they're saying in their polls, the Wall Street Journal survey of economists are saying that, so in October of 2022, 63% of people thought we were going to go into a recession. 37% said no. October of this year, it dropped, only 48% of the people thought we were going to go into a recession. 52% said no. But it's still, it shows that we have no clue, and the definitions of things continue to change.

Tom Whalen:

Yeah, absolutely.

Jay Day:

So it depends on what you consider. I know they changed the definition of inflation. There's no question we have been dealing with that. I think they finally accepted that it would feel like we had a little bit of a recession, but it might not be called that. But we don't know what the future holds. The one thing I can say is sometimes, and the joke is, and you hear it follow the money, as we've talked about on other podcasts, a lot of these big companies, BlackRock, Vanguard, all of these companies have been putting a lot of money into residential real estate. If they are hedging their bets on residential real estate, the one thing I can say is typically they're not dumb. They know where they're going to get their biggest return if they're doing it, I'm following that money and going to hedge my bet that real estate itself is not going to be in a situation where values are going to drop like a rock. I don't see that happening. So those are the big three questions. I wish I could give you exact answers on all of them, but my crystal ball, as you said is broke. It's in the shop.

Tom Whalen:

We have a new year coming, so we'll see how it all works out. Those are all awesome questions. And you don't mind answering these questions with somebody who has a real estate transaction in the back of their mind.

Jay Day:

Not at all. And we give them the good, bad and the ugly and what we think and what the history shows and what predictions are. But as we get into that, our house of the week is a little, this is a little unique. I've got one in this property is in Falling Waters, West Virginia. It's in the Riverbend Seasonal campground.

Tom Whalen:

Okay.

Jay Day:

Alright. It's an opportunity to have a vacation spot. For those of you that don't know about Riverbend, the community is open April 1st through November 1st. This lot specifically on Candy Lane is close to the Potomac River. You could walk there super, super quickly. The Riverbend community has annual dues of $1,775. That gives you access to three pools, basketball courts, tennis courts, tot lots, putt putts, and there's over 10 miles of deep water access on the Potomac River for swimming, fishing, boating. We have this property on for $30,000. Again, it's a small parcel. There is a trailer on there now that does have a bathroom. It has one full bathroom and that one needs a little bit of work. Or you can take it down and put your own up. I went out there recently when I got this listing and people have built some really big things out there. I'm like, wow, this is sort of interesting. So if you wanted to be able to have access to the water at an affordable price, and maybe you have your own camper, or maybe you just want to do a little bit of fix up, $30,000, great price, great location, good amenities, you could be on the river enjoy in that time. And then when November 1st comes, it's too cold to be hanging out on the river anyway, in my opinion.

Tom Whalen:

Hey, that sounds like a lot of fun, man. That sounds like a cool property.

Jay Day:

So if you want to see more about it, go to wfre.com. Look up Tom and Jay's real Estate podcast. I've got some photos on there. I can I answer any questions you may have. We have photos of some of the amenities. The downside is my photos of the amenities I took after November 1st. So there was good and bad with that. The bad is that everything was closed and the leaves have fallen. The good is I didn't have anybody in any of my pictures.

Tom Whalen:

So privacy out there.

Jay Day:

Yeah. Yeah. So it was good to be able to at least show it without having to worry about getting waivers signed that we were going to have people's kids in the pool and photos and stuff. So check it out again. Happy holidays to everybody. I guess we still have a couple, well, we have one more before Christmas, but I'll say Merry Christmas early anyway.

Tom Whalen:

I love saying Merry Christmas.

Jay Day:

Yeah.

Tom Whalen:

I'm Tom.

Jay Day:

I'm Jay.

Tom Whalen:

Merry Christmas to all. Thank you for listening to our weekly Real estate podcast. Tell your friends all about it.

Post a Comment